Trump's Stock Market Gamble

In 2015, we were graced with quite possibly the most amazing movie to ever exist. It had romance, action, a stocky middle-aged protagonist with a suicidal brother...need I even say the title? But while The Big Short romanticized the plights of economic geniuses pre-2008, it failed to relay a crucial message to the general public.

When Obama bailed out the banks to you know, avoid utter economic devastation, the stock market did drop--but not nearly low enough. Real estate prices follow a historically accurate course referred to as the mean trend line. If you were to look at a graph of the real estate market, there is always a consistent line of best fit that persisted for almost two centuries. Up until 2008. The market dropped, but not nearly enough to correct itself and realign with the mean trend line. In fact, after that slight drop the market just climbed ever higher to reach the astounding height it currently resides at.

And there's a large problem with the current state of affairs, at least if your name is Donald Trump. Regardless of your personal affiliations, the numbers don't lie--unemployment is down, and vast swaths of the country are perfectly happy with our president. However Trump mistakenly tied his success as a president to an ever climbing stock market. But the correction of the market will occur--we can't exponentially grow. In fact, some economists believe that because the crash from 2008 has been prolonged for over a decade the upcoming correction will be multiple times as bad. Which is really bad for the little guy, but even worse for Trump. Unless he can figure out a way to delay the inevitable until after the 2020 elections, he will most likely lose the presidency.